Evidence

The case in numbers

The handful of figures the Saleem thesis rests on, and where each one comes from.

The wallets are there; the money is not

In the first corridors the wallet already reaches the phone. What does not reach the wallet is money from abroad, and the record an institution needs.

	Money	People
The world	$685 billion a year sent home to low and middle income countries (World Bank)Primary verifiedWorld Bank	593 million people use a mobile money wallet every month (GSMA)SecondaryGSMA
The first corridors	$51 billion a year leaves the UAE through exchange houses (Central Bank of the UAE); $27 billion a year arrives in the Levant and Pakistan*Saleem estimateCBUAE for the $51 billion, which includes trade and investment; the $27 billion is a Saleem derivation, order of magnitude	25 million adults in the Levant*Saleem estimateUN population data, order of magnitude

Cash is expensive

Five measures of what the status quo costs. They are five different things, not parts of one sum.

Families $20 billion

a year kept, if remittance fees met the 3% target

UN Primary verified

Institutions 17 cents

of every humanitarian aid dollar is spent delivering it

WFP Secondary

Recipients 5.6%

of the amount, to collect money as cash

World Bank Primary verified

Senders 6.4%

average cost to send $200

World Bank Primary verified

Jordan into Syria 7.42%

the priced formal corridor, with no low-cost qualifying service (Q3 2025)

World Bank Primary verified

The conditions are here

The wallet is in the hand, the liquidity is in-country, the licensing routes are opening.

The wallet is in the hand

84% of adults in low and middle income countries own a mobile phone World Bank Primary verified
1 in 4 government payment recipients is still paid in cash World Bank Primary verified
For context: about a billion people can only be reached by voice or SMS GSMA Secondary

Liquidity

Eight of the twenty largest unconnected populations rank in the top twenty for grassroots crypto adoption GSMA; Chainalysis Adoption Index Secondary

Licensing

Pakistan, Nigeria, Kenya and Jordan have each enacted virtual asset frameworks since 2025 Statutes Primary verified
The UAE payment token regime is in force CBUAE Primary verified
Syria approved a national electronic payments framework with a supervised testing environment in August 2026 (secondary source) Central Bank of Syria Secondary

The delivery-cost benchmarks

Four published benchmarks set the bar every Saleem pilot is reported against.

17 cents of every aid dollar: the cost-transfer ratio (the cost of delivering each dollar) of humanitarian cash today WFP Secondary
14 cents to $1.32 per dollar transferred across eight programmes in seven countries; scale the largest driver IRC Secondary
1.4 to 6.7 cents per dollar: the digital floor on record, from a trial in Afghanistan WFP Secondary
29 percent lower delivery cost, 10 hours faster per payment and 100 percent traceability: a peer platform pilot in Syria and Afghanistan, as its publisher reports it Mercy Corps Ventures Secondary
About 25 million US dollars paid to 80,000 wallets by UN agencies through the same locally issued wallet since February 2025 (single source) Secondary reporting Secondary

The domestic rails in the first corridors

Five rails already run inside the first corridors. None carries value from abroad, and none gives a payer a console.

An operator wallet in Syria runs over USSD on the basic handset: opened and operated by short code, one wallet per number (confirmed, primary read) Domestic rails Primary verified
A smartphone app has carried state salaries since 2025, cashing out through licensed exchange companies (secondary reporting; no fee figure). Domestic rails Secondary
A domestic card acquirer in Syria runs about 4,200 terminals, with international card acceptance live since May 2026 (company statement, single source) Domestic rails Secondary
Syria's second mobile operator changed hands in June 2026; launch under the new owner is targeted for the first quarter of 2027 (confirmed, primary read) Domestic rails Primary verified
12 million households in Pakistan are paid a quarterly stipend (confirmed); payment to SIM-linked wallets as reported, not yet verified Press Information Department Secondary

The first corridors matter

$18 billion a year arrives in the Levant at 7 to 11 percent; $8 billion of it from the Gulf*

UAEThe sending hub

$51B sent abroad a year through exchange houses, trade and investment included CBUAE Primary verified

SyriaReceive market

10M* adults the corridor can reach Saleem estimate

$8 billion remittance and household receipts Central Bank of Syria estimate, via World Bank Secondary

LebanonReceive market, on the central bank's authorisation

$5.8 billion remittance inflows World Bank Primary verified

11 percent what it costs to arrive Secondary reporting Secondary

Five licensed wallets Banque du Liban Primary verified

JordanReceive market, under the Virtual Assets Law No. 14 of 2025

$4.5 billion remittance inflows, all origins Central Bank of Jordan Secondary

440,000 people in 91,000 households, one wallet per household, targeted UN Jordan; WFP Jordan Primary verified

PakistanReceive market, payout on licensed partner rails

$8.8 billion remittance inflows from the UAE, FY26 SBP Primary verified

$38 billion official remittance inflows, all sources, FY25 SBP Primary verified

Market figures, not signed business.

Appendix: methodology, derivations and the capability mapOpen for the working behind every figure and the category comparison.

How the categories differ

This is a capability map based on public product documentation, not a scored ranking. Availability varies by provider and market. Saleem capabilities describe a pre-launch product.

	Basic phone, no app (USSD, SIM Toolkit)	Feature phone app (KaiOS, light Android)	Cross-border	Holds value in dollars	Pays thousands at once, with a record	Merchant acceptance	Lands money in a wallet the person already has, with a screen for the payer
Mobile money (operator wallets) Secondary	yes	yes	limited	Not established from public sources	domestic only	yes	Not established from public sources
Feature-phone stablecoin wallets (consumer apps) Secondary	Not established from public sources	yes	yes	yes	Not established from public sources	limited	Not established from public sources
App-first stablecoin payment providers Secondary	Not established from public sources	some	yes	yes	some	limited	Not established from public sources
Remittance operators and exchange houses Secondary	cash pickup	Not established from public sources	yes	cash	limited	Not established from public sources	Not established from public sources
Hawala and sarraf cash Secondary	cash	Not established from public sources	yes	cash	Not established from public sources	Not established from public sources	Not established from public sources
Aid settlement layers (middle mile) Secondary	Not established from public sources	Not established from public sources	yes	yes	partial (to partners and vendors, not households)	Not established from public sources	Not established from public sources
Locally issued stablecoin wallets (last mile) Secondary	partial (cards)	yes	limited	limited	partial	domestic only	Not established from public sources
Saleem Pre-launch claim	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes

Capabilities as each provider type states them in public documentation; Saleem's row describes the built, pre-launch product.

Sources and methodology

Where each figure comes from, and how the two Saleem estimates are derived.

World Bank: World Bank, Global Findex Database 2025; The World Bank, Remittance Prices Worldwide, available at http://remittanceprices.worldbank.org (Q3 2025); World Bank, Migration and Development Brief 41, December 2024 ($685 billion of remittances to low and middle income countries, 2024; Lebanon $5.8 billion, 2024 data, single-source primary)
GSMA: GSMA, State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money 2026 (593 million monthly active mobile money accounts; read from secondary reporting, not yet verified against the primary); GSMA, State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2025 (Figures 2, 5 and 17)
UN: United Nations, International Day of Family Remittances (remittance fees above the 3% target, on $685 billion of remittances to low and middle income countries, 2024); United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024, for the adult populations of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan
WFP: World Food Programme (2023), as cited in Aiken, Blumenstock et al., Can Digital Aid Deliver During Humanitarian Crises? (2023), which also reports the Afghanistan trial (1.4 cents per dollar excluding recruitment, 6.7 cents including it; one programme, single source)
IRC: IRC, Cost Efficiency Analysis: Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs (2016)
Mercy Corps Ventures: Mercy Corps Ventures, Pilot Insights, November 2025: the pilot in Syria and Afghanistan (29 percent lower delivery cost, 10 hours faster per payment, 100 percent traceability). The platform is not named on this page by design. No figure here is a Saleem result.
Central Bank of Jordan: Central Bank of Jordan data, via the Jordan News Agency: $3.35 billion of remittances in the first nine months of 2025 and $1.23 billion in the first quarter of 2026, stated here as $4.5 billion a year; origin shares from the same releases (UAE 22 percent, Saudi Arabia 18, Qatar 10, Kuwait 5). Single-source primary.
Secondary reporting: Press and sector reporting where no primary has yet been read; each such figure is replaced when its primary is read.
Banque du Liban: Banque du Liban, directory of institutions under its supervision, electronic payment service providers (accessed 20 September 2026).
UN Jordan; WFP Jordan: UN Jordan and WFP Jordan, mobile money for cash assistance to Syrian refugees, programme pages (target figures).
CALP: CALP Network and ALNAP, Global Humanitarian Assistance Report 2025 ($6.6 billion of humanitarian cash and vouchers, 2024)
CBUAE: Central Bank of the UAE, Annual Report 2025 (exchange house outward remittances, includes trade and investment); Payment Token Services Regulation
SBP: State Bank of Pakistan: inflows from the UAE, FY26; workers' remittances of US$38.3 billion from all sources in FY25, press release of 9 July 2025 (Workers' Remittances in June 2025), shown on the tile as $38 billion. Formal channels only.
Central Bank of Syria: Central Bank of Syria estimate, via World Bank, Syria Macro-Fiscal Assessment, June 2025; the national electronic payments framework with a supervised testing environment, August 2026, from secondary reporting (primary text not yet read)
OCHA: UN OCHA, Syria Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026
Chainalysis: Chainalysis, 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index and Sub-Saharan Africa excerpt
Statutes: Pakistan Virtual Assets Act 2026; Nigeria Investments and Securities Act 2025; Kenya Virtual Asset Service Providers Act 2025; Jordan Virtual Assets Law 14 of 2025
CSIS: CSIS, How the Assad Regime Systematically Diverts Tens of Millions in Aid, October 2021 (inclusion page)
IFAD: IFAD and UN DESA, average remittance transfer size (the worked example below)
Press Information Department: Press Information Department, Government of Pakistan, press release of 22 June 2026 (12 million households paid a quarterly stipend by the Benazir Income Support Programme); the SIM-linked wallet channel from unofficial portals and press reporting, not yet verified
Domestic rails: The domestic rails of the first corridors, read 19 September 2026: the operator wallet from the operator's own service page (primary); the state salary app's role from press reporting of 2025 and March 2026 (secondary; no fee figure is stated); the card acquirer's terminal count from a company statement reported in the press, May 2026 (single source); the second operator's change of hands from the acquiring group's press release of 30 June 2026 (primary). No operator, acquirer or wallet is named on this page by design.

Methodology

$27 billion a year is the sum of household receipts into Syria ($8B, Central Bank of Syria via World Bank), remittances into Lebanon ($5.8B, World Bank 2024) and Jordan ($4.5B, Central Bank of Jordan), and remittances from the UAE into Pakistan ($8.8B, SBP). Pakistan is counted from the UAE only; Levant inflows are from all origins. $17 billion is the Gulf-origin share: Syria at 43 percent (Saleem corridor analysis), Jordan at 55 percent (Central Bank of Jordan), Lebanon at 35 percent (Saleem assumption, no primary), Pakistan as stated. Order of magnitude. The Pakistan figure counts formal channels only; informal flows are additional and no primary sizes them. The UAE figure is FY26 and the all-sources figure is FY25; both move to FY26 when the State Bank of Pakistan annual release is read. Saleem estimate

25 million is the adult population of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan (UN World Population Prospects 2024). In Syria the operator wallet is available on every SIM; wallet counts for Jordan and Lebanon are not yet sourced and are not claimed. Saleem estimate

10 million adults the corridor can reach: Saleem estimate, range 8.95 to 11.08 million, from World Bank and GSMA data. Saleem estimate

$6.6 billion of humanitarian cash was transferred in 2024 (CALP). WFP reports 17 cents of delivery cost per dollar. Applied across all of it: $1.1 billion. Illustrative; other agencies' costs differ. Saleem estimate

On the same $6.6 billion, delivery at 1.4 to 6.7 cents per dollar (one digital programme, Afghanistan, 2023) would cost $0.09 to 0.44 billion. The difference from 17 cents: $0.7 to 1.0 billion. Arithmetic, not a forecast. Saleem estimate

$1.3 to 2.0 billion a year. Fees on money sent into the Levant at 7 to 11 percent, on $18 billion of inflows (World Bank RPW). $14.84 on every $200 sent from Jordan into Syria. $18 billion a year arrives in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan (World Bank, Central Bank of Jordan). At 7 to 11 percent, the fees are $1.3 to 2.0 billion. 7.42 percent is the Jordan to Syria rate (World Bank RPW, Q3 2025); 11 percent is the reported average cost into Lebanon (secondary reporting; World Bank corridor pages to be read). Order of magnitude. Saleem estimate

One in four people receiving a government payment still collects it in cash (World Bank Findex 2025); in the first corridors the operator and bank wallets reach the basic handset, and the international leg does not. Saleem lands the payment in the wallet the person already has, or on a basic phone where they have none. Pre-launch claim

A family waits without knowing when, or how much, will arrive. 7 to 11 percent is the cost range set out for the Levant fees figure above (World Bank RPW, Q3 2025, for Jordan to Syria; secondary reporting for Lebanon). These are costs of arriving in the Levant, measured on the corridors the World Bank prices, not rates from the Gulf alone. A UAE-origin rate is added when the RPW corridor pages are read. The time is stated as days, with no number, until the speed-of-transfer field on the World Bank RPW corridor pages is read; bank and hawala times on the UAE routes are Saleem's reading of corridor research. Saleem estimate

Businesses hold stock, delay orders, or pay a premium to be paid on time. The standard correspondent chain for a cross-border invoice into the first corridors, as described in Saleem's corporate research; no published figure for the number of hops or the deductions is claimed. Saleem estimate

Reports are rebuilt by hand and a payment cannot be traced end to end. Today the beneficiary list, the approval, the transfer and the receipt live in separate systems, so no one can follow one payment through all four. Saleem is built to record each payment once on a shared ledger that the payer, the partner, the recipient and the auditor all read; an entry cannot be altered after the fact. This is a basis, not a figure. Pre-launch claim

5,000 to 10,000 sarrafs moving $1 to 2 billion a year: Saleem estimates; no published figure exists. Saleem estimate

Better money: arrives whole, with no counter fee; in hours, not days; recorded on both sides; held in a stable currency where the local framework permits. Pre-launch claim

Saleem reports every pilot on the CALP cost-efficiency conventions: cost-transfer ratio and cost per beneficiary, with the counterfactual named. Pre-launch claim

Figures about cost are stated as their source states them, with the population and year the source covers. Two figures on the home page are Saleem arithmetic on sourced inputs; each is marked with an asterisk and its working is shown here. None is a saving Saleem would deliver. Market figures describe the market; nothing on this page is signed or contracted business.

Two illustrations

The same figures as pictures.

What a transfer costs today

2% to 5%Hawala and sarraf channels, documented range (corridor reporting)
7.42%Jordan to Syria, no low-cost qualifying service (World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide, Q3 2025)
No Saleem feeSaleem, to sender and recipient; FX conversion applies where currencies convert

Migrant workers typically send $200 to $300 at a time, every one to two months (IFAD and UN DESA). At documented rates, hawala and sarraf commissions run 2% to 5% (corridor reporting); the priced formal corridor runs higher: 7.42% from Jordan into Syria, with no low-cost qualifying service (World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide, Q3 2025). Saleem charges no fee to sender or recipient; FX conversion applies where currencies convert, at the licensed partner's rate. Institutions pay Saleem.

Annual remittance inflows, five focus markets

GCC + diaspora

Annual remittance inflows from all sources combined, not single corridors. The GCC hub marks the sender corridor; sender corridors sit outside the receiving markets. Marker size reflects relative inflow. Map data: Natural Earth (simplified). Sources: State Bank of Pakistan, Central Bank of Egypt, Bangladesh Bank, World Bank. Syria: total household receipts approximately $8 billion (2023, Central Bank of Syria estimate, reported by the World Bank, Syria Macro-Fiscal Assessment, June 2025); formal channels approximately $3.7 billion (official balance of payments, 2023) as the conservative floor; flows are largely informal.

Questions partners ask

What is live today, what is designed but not built, and can we audit it and export to our bank? Who has used this, and what happened? How does Saleem make money, and what does the recipient pay? What about Syria sanctions?

All twelve questions